Recent Polls (YouGov/Economist) are Massively Oversampling Democrats

We’ve heard a lot about how pollsters are oversampling Democrats. Here is the latest example courtesy of YouGov and the Economist.

 

quinnipiac-poll

Total Numbers: Democrats are over-sampled by 15% or 160 people in a poll of 1055 registered voters.

Sources (1, 2)

Here’s another example from the Morning Consult:

morning-consult

As you can see with the ugly handwriting, Dems are oversampled +9, with Hillary up +7.

If you factor in the nation-wide party registration, this above poll should be dead even.

Trump is Winning With Independents

In the majority of polls Trump is up with independents. Simply go through the HuffPo Pollster to see for yourself.

Independents are more likely to tend towards change and the outsider. Though Trump is a polarizing candidate, he will likely seize the majority of independents on election day.

Stay tuned for future election¬†analysis…